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An Analysis of the Economic Cycles of the English Speaking Caribbean Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Roland Craigwell
  • Alain Maurin

    (UAG - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane)

Abstract

For decades, the problem of dating the business cycle presented a major concern for businessmen and policy makers. Despite the development of many statistical methodologies dedicated to the detection of turning points in the cycle, only a few countries compile and publish an official chronology of the economic cycle. This paper proposes a study of business cycles in the Caribbean basin by considering the cases of Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, the only countries in this geographical area for which databases with sufficient high frequency are available over long periods. First, common methods are used to identify and develop a description of the main empirical features of the turning points of the business cycle and the growth cycle. Second, the focus is on comparing the phases of the cycles obtained for these three countries and to examine their synchronization with other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Craigwell & Alain Maurin, 2012. "An Analysis of the Economic Cycles of the English Speaking Caribbean Countries," Working Papers hal-03944028, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03944028
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    Keywords

    business cycle; growth cycle; Bry-Boschan procedure; trend-cycle decomposition; synchronization cycles; JEL Classification: C32 E32 business cycle growth cycle Bry-Boschan procedure trend-cycle decomposition; JEL Classification: C32; E32 business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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