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Correcting the Reproduction Number for Time-Varying Tests: a Proposal and an Application to COVID-19 in France

Author

Listed:
  • Christelle Baunez

    (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mickaël Degoulet

    (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphane Luchini

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Matteo L. Pintus

    (AgroParisTech)

  • Patrick Pintus

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Miriam Teschl

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We provide a novel way to correct the effective reproduction number for the time-varying amount of tests, using the acceleration index (Baunez et al., 2021) as a simple measure of viral spread dynamics. Not correcting results in the reproduction number being a biased estimate of viral acceleration and we provide a formal decomposition of the resulting bias, involving the useful notions of test and infectivity intensities. When applied to French data for the COVID-19 pandemic (May 13, 2020 - October 26, 2022), our decomposition shows that the reproduction number, when considered alone, characteristically underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all relevant information and captures in real time the sizable time variation featured by viral circulation, it is a more parsimonious indicator to track the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak in real time, compared to the equivalent alternative which would combine the reproduction number with the test and infectivity intensities

Suggested Citation

  • Christelle Baunez & Mickaël Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus & Patrick Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2022. "Correcting the Reproduction Number for Time-Varying Tests: a Proposal and an Application to COVID-19 in France," Working Papers hal-03654180, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03654180
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-03654180v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2020. "Sub-National Allocation of COVID-19 Tests: An Efficiency Criterion with an Application to Italian Regions," Post-Print hal-03140005, HAL.
    2. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2021. "Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    1. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2021. "Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus, 2020. "The Acceleration Index as a Test-Controlled Reproduction Number: Application to COVID-19 in France," AMSE Working Papers 2045, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. Christelle Baunez & Michaël Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A. Pintus, 2021. "COVID-19 Acceleration and Vaccine Status in France - Summer 2021," AMSE Working Papers 2141, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A. Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2020. "An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-down on Virus Propagation in France," Working Papers halshs-03002354, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Reproduction Number; Testing; Acceleration Index; Real-time Analysis; France;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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