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Inflation et tensions

Author

Listed:
  • Céline Antonin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Elliot Aurissergues

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Magali Dauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Pierre Madec

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Raul Sampognaro

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Two years after the outbreak of COVID, the pandemic has not come to a halt and new variants have appeared. The recovery is confirmed in all geographic areas. The business climate in the main branches of the economies of the European Union has improved markedly, particularly in industry. This situation is also reflected in the evolution of the activity. The return of GDPs to their counterfactual reference level is accompanied by the resurgence of tensions which are manifested by a rebound in inflation, but also by the insufficiency of productive resources, causing difficulties in recruitment and supply difficulties. Labor market tightness is particularly high in the United States, reflected in accelerating wages and unit labor costs. Under these conditions, the inflation observed in 2021 could be long-lasting and amplified by the geopolitical situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Antonin & Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Christine Riffl, 2022. "Inflation et tensions," Working Papers hal-03615358, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03615358
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03615358
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    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03615358/document
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Christine Rifflart & Raul Sampognaro & Eric H, 2022. "Inflation de tensions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03611517, HAL.
    • Céline Antonin & Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Éric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Christine Riffl, 2022. "Inflation de tensions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04254986, HAL.
    • Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau & Céline Antonin & Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane , 2022. "Inflation de tensions," Post-Print hal-03699963, HAL.
    • Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau & Céline Antonin & Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane , 2022. "Inflation de tensions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03699963, HAL.
    • Céline Antonin & Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Christine Riffl, 2022. "Inflation et tensions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03615358, HAL.
    • Céline Antonin & Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Éric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Christine Riffl, 2022. "Inflation de tensions," Working Papers hal-04254986, HAL.
    • Elliot Aurissergues & Christophe Blot & Magali Dauvin & Amel Falah & Sabine Le Bayon & Pierre Madec & Catherine Mathieu & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Christine Rifflart & Raul Sampognaro, 2022. "Inflation de tensions," Post-Print hal-03611517, HAL.

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