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Projections des températures de l'eau de la Seine à Paris à l'horizon 2100

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  • Agnès Rivière

    (GEOSCIENCES - Centre de Géosciences - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Daphné Ladet
  • William Thomas
  • Guillaume Le Breton

    (Zernike Institute for Advanced Materials - University of Groningen [Groningen])

  • Agnès Ducharne

    (METIS - Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ludovic Oudin

    (METIS - Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Ce rapport est le fruit d'un travail réalisé entre la DRIEAT et des scientifiques du PIREN Seine. La température de l'eau est un facteur déterminant de la vie des rivières et conditionne les activités industrielles. L'objectif de l'étude est d'établir l'évolution de la température de la Seine et de la Marne dans l'agglomération parisienne depuis la fin du XIX e siècle jusqu'à l'horizon 2100. L'exploitation statistique des observations déjà collectées ont mis en évidence les liens très forts entre température de l'air et la température de l'eau. Les conséquences du réchauffement climatique sont nettement visibles depuis la fin du XIX ème siècle jusqu'à nos jours : hausse de 1,7°C par siècle des températures de la Seine, de la Marne, et de l'air. Les méthodes de Machine Learning, sont très efficaces pour l'exploration de jeux de données massifs et sont déjà utilisées en climatologie, météorologie ou hydrologie. Elles ont été retenues pour déterminer les futures températures jusqu'à l'horizon 2100. Les projections de température de l'air estimées à la station proche d'Orly par 12 instituts européens, selon 3 scénarios des émissions terrestres en CO 2 (RCP 2.6, 4.5 et 8.5) ont été téléchargées depuis le site web DRIAS. Ces modélisations annoncent une accélération de la hausse notamment dans le scénario RCP 8.5 à l'horizon 2100 : augmentation de la température moyenne annuelle de 2,7°C et multiplication par 3 des périodes chaudes (>25,5°C) depuis nos jours.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Rivière & Daphné Ladet & William Thomas & Guillaume Le Breton & Agnès Ducharne & Ludovic Oudin, 2021. "Projections des températures de l'eau de la Seine à Paris à l'horizon 2100," Working Papers hal-03533469, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03533469
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-03533469
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    1. Jensen, Mark J., 2000. "An alternative maximum likelihood estimator of long-memory processes using compactly supported wavelets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 361-387, March.
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