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Que nous apprennent les données macro-sectorielles sur les premiers effets du CICE ?

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

L'objectif de cet article est de mettre en évidence des effets potentiels du CICE sur l'économie française sur la période 2014-2015t2, à partir de l'information fournie par les comptes nationaux trimestriels par branche. Partant d'une analyse économétrique en panel, nous cherchons à savoir si le CICE a eu des effets sur l'emploi, les salaires et les prix de valeur ajoutée. Cette méthode permet d'identifier et de quantifier les effets relatifs interbranche du CICE sur ces variables, mais ne permet pas d'en déduire des effets macroéconomiques. A partir de nos estimations sur 16 branches, il apparait que pour un montant de CICE équivalent à 1% de la masse salariale, l'emploi d'une branche augmenterait de 0,5% relativement aux autres branches, les salaires de 0,7%. Enfin, à partir des résultats d'estimations réalisées simultanément, nous pouvons quantifier ces effets relatifs interbranche, qui seraient de 1,1% pour les salaires et de 120000 pour l'emploi (création ou sauvegarde).

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Ducoudre & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2015. "Que nous apprennent les données macro-sectorielles sur les premiers effets du CICE ?," Working Papers hal-03459504, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03459504
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459504
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    2. Bruno Ducoudre & Mathieu Plane, 2015. "Les demandes de facteurs de production en France," Post-Print hal-03459704, HAL.
    3. Simon Cueva & Éric Heyer, 1997. "Fonction de production et degrés d'utilisation du capital et du travail : une analyse économétrique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 131(5), pages 93-111.
    4. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4qilfjqtj8vhojbtj33helhtq is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bruno Ducoudré & Mathieu Plane, 2015. "Les demandes de facteurs de production en France. Estimation et analyse des effets de la crise," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 21-53.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Ducoudre & Pierre Madec & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Raul Sampognaro, 2016. "Bilan préliminaire du quinquennat de François Hollande," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03411243, HAL.
    2. Fabrice Gilles & Yannick L’Horty & Ferhat Mihoubi & Xi Yang, 2018. "Evaluating the impact of firm tax credits. Results from the French natural experiment CICE," TEPP Working Paper 2018-05, TEPP.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4v8c8tnfgu8g392dpm6uaefuus is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bruno Ducoudre & Eric Heyer & Alais Martin Baillon & Mathieu Plane, 2017. "Quelle incidence du CICE sur les salaires et l'emploi ? Une évaluation pour la période 2014-2017 t2 sur données de branches," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393161, HAL.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3tcjovkgns9hkb0cnneq6ihm7m is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3tcjovkgns9hkb0cnneq6ihm7m is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4v8c8tnfgu8g392dpm6uaefuus is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bruno Ducoudré & Eric Heyer & Alaïs Martin-Baillon & Mathieu Plane, 2017. "Quelle incidence du CICE sur les salaires et l'emploi Une évaluation pour la période 2014-2017 t2 sur données de branches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-25, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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