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Steady State Growth of Vietnam Economy

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  • Ly Dai Hung

    (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract

The paper estimates the steady state economic growth rate of Vietnam, defined as the equilibirum that the economy converge without new shocks. The method employs a bayesian structural vector autoregressive model (BSVAR) which captures the Triffin policy trilemma at international financial integration. On a quarterly sample over Q2/2008-Q4/2019, the evidence records that the steady state growth based on Minnesota prior is 6.13%. This result is robust by normal-diffuse prior, normal-wishart prior and timely average method. For policy implication, the Vietnam government's objective of annual growth rate at 7.0% over 2021-2030 can only be attained for economic expansion periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Steady State Growth of Vietnam Economy," Working Papers hal-03275275, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03275275
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03275275
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    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Vector Autoregression; Vietnam Economy;
    All these keywords.

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