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Vietnam Economy Within 3-Dimension Space of US-China Trade War

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  • Ly Dai Hung

    (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract

The paper accesses the impact of US-China trade war on Vietnam economy, as a small open economy with international financial integration. The methodology combines qualitative analysis with quantitative model, which employs a vector autoregression with time varying coefficients (TVC-VAR), based on a quarterly sample covering from Q1/2001 to Q1/2019. The empirical evidence proves that the trade war can reduce the expected economic growth by lowering the prospect of world economy, induce the high fluctuation of VND by the deviation of USD and RMB. Within the 3-dimension space including trade, finance and geo-polistic, the war represents the fundamental issues, including the relative performance of US with China econmy (the trade dimension), the difference between the savings of US compared with the rest of world (the fiance dimension), and the competition of polistical power between US and China (the geo-polistic dimension).

Suggested Citation

  • Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "Vietnam Economy Within 3-Dimension Space of US-China Trade War," Working Papers hal-03140322, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03140322
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03140322
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