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Marché européen des quotas de CO2 : Les enjeux du passage à la phase 3

Author

Listed:
  • Christian de Perthuis

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire économie du climat - Chaire économie du climat)

  • Raphaël Trotignon

    (Chaire économie du climat - Chaire économie du climat)

Abstract

Le système européen d'échanges de quotas de CO2 constitue le pivot de la politique climatique européenne visant à mettre la société sur une trajectoire sobre en carbone aux meilleures conditions économiques. Ce système a été affaibli par la faiblesse de sa régulation, par un chevauchement indésirable avec d'autres politiques publiques et par l'ampleur de la crise économique et financière qui a fait plonger le prix du quota sur le marché. Ce Cahier de la Chaire Economie du Climat tente d'identifier les conditions permettant de réussir le passage à la phase 3 du marché (2013-2020). Il tire les leçons historiques de huit années de fonctionnement qui révèlent l'extraordinaire sensibilité du marché à tout changement même modéré des conditions de l'offre et de la demande. Il évalue ensuite, à l'aide du modèle ZEPHYR-Flex, les différentes interventions des pouvoirs publics actuellement discutées pour faire remonter le prix du quota sur le marché ; ces simulations révèlent le risque de report des difficultés sur le futur en brouillant un peu plus la visibilité dont ont besoin les acteurs sur le long terme. Il propose enfin de tirer les leçons de la politique monétaire en esquissant ce que pourrait être le mandat d'une Autorité Indépendante de Régulation, en charge d'une gestion dynamique de l'offre de permis et dont la mission principale serait, à l'instar d'une banque centrale, d'assurer une articulation optimale entre les différents horizons temporels de la stratégie climatique.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian de Perthuis & Raphaël Trotignon, 2017. "Marché européen des quotas de CO2 : Les enjeux du passage à la phase 3," Working Papers hal-01504990, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01504990
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01504990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Christian de Perthuis, 2012. "Pourquoi l'Europe a besoin d'une banque centrale du carbone," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 155-175.
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    Politique de l'environnement;

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