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Two historical changes in the narrative of energy forecasts

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  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi)

  • Franck Nadaud

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Martin Jegard

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A collection of 417 energy scenarios was assembled and harmonized to compare what they said about nuclear, fossil and renewable energy thirty years from their publication. Based on data analysis, we divide the recent history of the energy forecasting in three periods. The first is defined by a decline in nuclear optimism, approximately until 1990. The second by a stability of forecasts, approximately until 2005. The third by a rise in the forecasted share of renewable energy sources. We also find that forecasts tend to cohere, that is they have a low dispersion within periods compared to the change across periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Minh Ha-Duong & Franck Nadaud & Martin Jegard, 2016. "Two historical changes in the narrative of energy forecasts," Working Papers hal-01275593, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01275593
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01275593
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Charles Hourcade & Franck Nadaud, 2010. "Thirty-five years of long-run energy forecasting : lessons for climate change policy," Post-Print halshs-00521173, HAL.
    2. Bryant, James W. & Thomas, Stephen D., 1980. "A modelling framework for comparative testing of energy forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 309-320, November.
    3. Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Nadaud, Franck, 2010. "Thirty-five years of long-run energy forecasting : lessons for climate change policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5298, The World Bank.
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    Keywords

    scenario; periodization; energy;
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