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Calvo, Guillermo, Fabrizio Coricelli and Pablo Ottonello, 2013. "Jobless Recoveries During Financial Crises: Is Inflation the Way Out?," NBER Working Papers 19683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Author

Listed:
  • Guillermo Calvo

    (Columbia University [New York])

  • Pablo Ottonello

    (Columbia University [New York])

  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper discusses three policy tools to mitigate jobless recoveries during financial crises: inflation, real currency depreciation, and credit-recovery policies. Using a sample of financial crises in Emerging Market economies, we document that large inflationary spikes appear to help unemployment to get back to pre-crisis levels. However, the counterpart of inflation is sizably lower real wages. Hence, inflation does not prevent wage earners as a whole from getting hit by financial crises. Interestingly, neither the change in the real exchange rate nor the change in output composition (tradables/nontradables), from output peak to recovery point, displays a statistically significant relationship with inflation or jobless recovery. This suggests that currency depreciation can help reduce unemployment only insofar as it is associated with inflation, and that jobless recovery is likely due to nominal wage rigidity. The paper also shows that measures to reactivate credit flows could be beneficial to wage earners as a whole, as measured by the real wage bill.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Calvo & Pablo Ottonello & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2014. "Calvo, Guillermo, Fabrizio Coricelli and Pablo Ottonello, 2013. "Jobless Recoveries During Financial Crises: Is Inflation the Way Out?," NBER Working Papers 19683, National Bureau of Economi," Working Papers hal-01082296, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01082296
    DOI: 10.3386/w19683
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    Cited by:

    1. Adina Ardelean & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2015. "Technology, Trade, and Quality Slopes," CAEPR Working Papers 2015-004, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    2. Peter Fisker, 2014. "Green Lights: Quantifying the economic impacts of drought," IFRO Working Paper 2014/11, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.

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