IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-00866451.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Peak Oil through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Henri Waisman

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julie Rozenberg

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Olivier Sassi

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean Charles Hourcade

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Peak Oil refers to the future peak of world oil production and its impact on the economy. We assess its date, level and economic consequences using the general equilibrium model Imaclim-R. This framework captures the technical, geopolitical and macroeconomic determinants of Peak Oil, which emerges endogenously from their interplay under inertia and non-perfect expectations. A range of dates, from 2017 to 2039, is obtained, depending on assumptions about the reserves, the technical inertia affecting production and the market power of Middle-East producers. The bubble of oil export revenues associated with the post-Peak Oil increase of oil price and its economic consequences are also quantified. We delineate the space of parameters (discount rate ; degree of optimism about oil resources) under which a low short-term oil price may maximize the objective function of oil exporters (maximisation of oil rent, or of long term consumption).

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Waisman & Julie Rozenberg & Olivier Sassi & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2010. "Peak Oil through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment," Working Papers hal-00866451, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866451
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00866451
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00866451/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Peak Oil; oil revenues; CGE Modeling; pic pétrolier; revenus pétroliers; Equilibre général;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.