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Genuine saving trajectory and vulnerability: the example of New-Caledonia

Author

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  • Cécile Couharde

    (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Geronimi

    (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines)

  • Elodie Maître d'Hôtel

    (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier)

  • Armand Taranco

    (Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to study the vulnerability of the New-Caledonian economy from the analysis of the historical trajectories of genuine saving and its component linked to natural capital. To this end, we calculate New-Caledonia's genuine saving, in accordance with the World Bank's approach. This calculation enables the assertion that at first glance the New-Caledonian economy doesn't show vulnerability signs insofar as the appreciation of assets linked to physical and human capital more than compensated the depreciation of assets linked to natural capital between 1970 and 2007. However, the analysis of the various components of the genuine saving trajectory using a Kalman filter reveals threshold effects in the nickel sector, thresholds from which the sustainability of New-Caledonia's development trajectory may be challenged.

Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Vincent Geronimi & Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Armand Taranco, 2011. "Genuine saving trajectory and vulnerability: the example of New-Caledonia," Working Papers hal-00845200, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00845200
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00845200
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    References listed on IDEAS

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