IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-04978428.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Accounting for the Multiple Sources of Inflation: an Agent-Based Model Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Ciambezi

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

  • Mattia Guerini

    (UniBs - Università degli Studi di Brescia = University of Brescia)

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SSSA - Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study the role of demand and supply factors in determining inflation dynamics. Local interactions of heterogeneous firms and households in the labor and goods markets characterize the model. Asymmetric information implies that firm selection is imperfect and depends both on firms' relative prices and on their size. We calibrate the model on EU data by using the method of simulated moments and show that it can generate realistic inflation dynamics and a non-linear Phillips curve in line with recent empirical evidence. We then find that the traditional demand-led explanation of inflation stemming from a tight labor market only holds when selection in the goods markets is mostly driven by relative prices in comparison to firm size. Finally, we study the response of inflation to shocks impacting consumption, labor productivity, or energy costs. The results indicate that only demand shocks lead to wage-led inflation surges. Productivity shocks are entirely passed through to prices without affecting the income distribution. Energy shocks, instead, induce sellers' inflation after changes in both firms' cost structure and profit margins. This is in line with the recent empirical evidence for the Euro Area.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Ciambezi & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2025. "Accounting for the Multiple Sources of Inflation: an Agent-Based Model Investigation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04978428, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-04978428
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04978428v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04978428v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-04978428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.