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A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Lapo Bini
  • Lucrezia Reichlin

    (London Business School, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Giovanni Ricco

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This study investigates the business cycle dynamics of the U.S. economy since 1900 through a multivariate framework that imposes minimal economic restrictions. A key finding is the presence of a significant negative correlation between inflation and economic slack, at business cycle frequencies. This relationship remains robust across over a century of data, with stable coefficients in subsample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Lapo Bini & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2024. "A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04814648, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-04814648
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04814648v1
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