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Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union

Author

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  • Lucrezia Reichlin
  • Giovanni Ricco

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Tarbé

Abstract

We study the monetary-fiscal mix in the European Monetary Union. The medium and long-run effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy are analysed by combining monetary policy shocks identified in a Structural VAR, and the general government budget constraint featuring a single central bank and multiple fiscal authorities. In response to a conventional easing of the policy rate, the cumulated response of the fiscal deficit is positive. Conversely, in response to an unconventional easing affecting the long end of the yield curve, the primary fiscal position barely moves. This is consistent with the long-run effect of unconventional monetary easing on the price index, which is about half that of conventional easing. The aggregate long-run cumulated surplus is mainly driven by Germany's fiscal policy during the period in which unconventional monetary policy was adopted.

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  • Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Matthieu Tarbé, 2021. "Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03474950, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03474950
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03474950
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Andreolli & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 701-772, June.
    2. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.
    3. Bouabdallah, Othman & Jacquinot, Pascal & Patella, Valeria, 2023. "Monetary/fiscal policy regimes in post-war Europe," Working Paper Series 2871, European Central Bank.
    4. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Surprises and Fiscal Sustainability Regimes in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 10558, CESifo.
    5. Rant, Vasja & Puc, Anja & Čok, Mitja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2024. "Macroeconomic impacts of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area in times of shifting policies: A SVAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary-fiscal interaction; fiscal policy; monetary policy; intertemporal government budget constraint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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