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L'utilisation des enquêtes de conjoncture pour modéliser et prévoir la production industrielle

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Vasseur

    (LAGIS - Laboratoire d'Automatique, Génie Informatique et Signal - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Centrale Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Industrial production level forecasting is of prime importance for short-term analysis. This article points out how important inventory movements are in fluctuations of production ; but the evolution of inventories is not well known since it can only be measured by difference. Four methods to study short horizon stocking and production behavior are compared, using the INSEE business surveys. It is not possible to show directly the theoretical schema by which producers would adjust their stocks to a standard level. But on the other hand, a considerable amount of the movements of stocks may be explained using the stocks surveys and the non-expected fluctuations of sales. Finally it appears that firms have the means of reacting almost completely to sales fluctuations on a quarterly horizon, which throws a shadow of doubt on the interest of the « expected production » survey. But important fluctuations of inventory movements remain unexplained.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Vasseur & Henri Sterdyniak, 1984. "L'utilisation des enquêtes de conjoncture pour modéliser et prévoir la production industrielle," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458089, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458089
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1984.984
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03458089
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5273 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Henri Sterdyniak & Marie-Annick Boudier & Michel Boutillier & Françoise Charpin & Bruno Durand, 1984. "Le modèle trimestriel de l'OFCE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 137-178.
    3. Frank Amalric & Alain Gubian & Pierre-Alain Muet, 1990. "Modèles de déséquilibre et échanges extérieurs : deux approches appliquées au secteur industriel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(3), pages 129-140.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5273 is not listed on IDEAS

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