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Balance sheets after the EMU: an assessment of the redenomination risk

Author

Listed:
  • Cédric Durand

    (UP13 - Université Paris 13)

  • Sébastien Villemot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications - ECO ENS-PSL - Département d'économie de l'ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

The probability of a partial or complete break-up of the euro has risen over the last years. Such an event could create a balance sheet problem for economic agents, if the redenomination process introduced significant currency mismatches between the asset and liability sides. We propose a new assessment of this redenomination risk, by country and by main institutional sector, for two scenarios: a single country exit and a complete break-up. Our main conclusion is that, even though the problem has to be taken seriously, its order of magnitude should not be exaggerated. Only a few sectors are at significant risk: public debts of Greece and Portugal, financial sectors of Greece, Ireland and Luxembourg. In particular, the balance sheet exposure of the non-financial private sector to the redenomination risk appears to be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Cédric Durand & Sébastien Villemot, 2020. "Balance sheets after the EMU: an assessment of the redenomination risk," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03409079, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03409079
    DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwy004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2018:i:3:p:50000000003758 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lindner, Vincent & Eckert, Sandra & Nölke, Andreas, 2022. "Political science research on the reasons for the (non) adoption and (non) implementation of EMU reform proposals: The state of the art," SAFE Working Paper Series 339, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    5. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Beyond the traditional monetary circuit: endogenous money, finance and the theory of long-period effective demand," Department of Economics University of Siena 757, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    6. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "The Nature of the Eurocrisis. A Reply to Febrero, Uxò and Bermejo," a/ Working Papers Series 1703, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    7. Costas Lapavitsas, 2018. "The Redenomination Risk of Eurozone Exit for Greece," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(03), pages 31-34, November.
    8. Alberto Bagnai & Brigitte Granville & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," a/ Working Papers Series 1702, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Accounting; International economic order;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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