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Une étude économétrique de l'impact des dépenses publiques et des prélèvements fiscaux sur l'activité économique au Québec et au Canada

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  • Louis Phaneuf

    (Département des Sciences économiques - Faculté de Droit Oujda, Maroc)

  • Etienne Wasmer

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Quel est l'impact des politiques des gouvernements sur l'activité économique au Québec et au Canada ? Les taxes ont-elles un effe t négatif par les distorsions qu' elles induisent ? Les dépenses stimulent-elles l'activité ? Le bilan est-il neutre, positif ou négatif d'un point de vue macroéconomique ? Nous proposons ici d'adresser ces questions, de clarifier les mérites respectifs des diverses approches empiriques et de proposer une série de réponses dans le contexte du Québec et du Canada. Nous mesurons en particulier l'impact quantitatif des dépenses publiques et des prélèvements fiscaux sur l'activité économique dans ces deux zones géographiques. Pour cela, nous utilisons une approche économétrique de type vecteurs-autorégressifs qui peut être qualifiée de " semi-structurelle " (SVAR). Pour la première fois, nous appliquons ce type d'approche à l'économie québécoise en raison de la disponibilité récente de données trimestrielles se rapportant à certains agrégats nécessaires à la réalisation d'une telle étude. Nos principaux résultats sont les suivants : 1) les chocs fiscaux et les chocs de dépenses sont relativement persistants, surtout en ce qui concerne les dépenses; 2) de tous les chocs étudiés, les chocs d'activité sont les plus persistants; 3) les dépenses publiques influent sur l'activité économique à court terme, mais modestement; 4) les effets distorsifs des taxes réduisent l'activité économique; 5) lorsque les effets cumulés des mécanismes 3) et 4) se propagent dans le temps, les effets négatifs des taxes semblent l'emporter après quelques années. Quant aux deux autres résultats dont la robustesse reste à vérifier mais qui ouvrent des perspectives intéressantes : 6) les multiplicateurs de dépense au niveau fédéral sembleraient inférieurs par rapport à ceux au niveau provincial, et 7) les effets distorsifs des taxes y seraient plus forts.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Phaneuf & Etienne Wasmer, 2005. "Une étude économétrique de l'impact des dépenses publiques et des prélèvements fiscaux sur l'activité économique au Québec et au Canada," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01063671, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01063671
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01063671
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
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