IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-01024844.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

PIB, déficit, dette, chômage : où vont les économies à moyen terme ?

Author

Listed:
  • Marion Cochard
  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

Abstract

Le potentiel de production, son niveau, sa croissance et l'output gap qui en résulte sont, à l'image du multiplicateur budgétaire, des indicateurs essentiels pour déterminer les stratégies macroéconomiques à suivre à moyen terme. Pour autant, leurs mesures sont sujettes à un grand nombre de controverses, notamment au sein des institutions internationales (FMI, Commission européenne et OCDE) qui peinent à s'accorder sur ces sujets. Notre évaluation des variations d'output gap, effectuée à partir des données portant sur le marché du travail, nous révèle un creusement important de l'écart de production au cours de la crise et des différences très fortes entre les pays. Dans le même temps, nos simulations de trajectoires macroéconomiques à moyen terme font apparaître le coût économique et social élevé associé à une stratégie de réduction rapide des déficits publics de manière coordonnée dans l'ensemble des pays de la zone euro. Il ressort des différents scénarios testés (multiplicateur faible, prime de risque, croissance potentielle réduite) qu'une stratégie équilibrée et optimale se traduirait par une réduction modérée et progressive des déséquilibres budgétaires structurels. Les nouveaux délais accordés à un certain nombre de pays européens pour ramener leur déficit public en-dessous du seuil d'un déficit à 3 % du PIB semblent aller dans ce sens.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Cochard & Mathieu Plane & Danielle Schweisguth, 2013. "PIB, déficit, dette, chômage : où vont les économies à moyen terme ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01024844, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01024844
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.129.0299
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01024844v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01024844v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3917/reof.129.0299?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6706 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gérard Cornilleau & Henri Sterdyniak, 2011. "Commentaires sur l'article. « Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle : une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables »," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 113-119.
    3. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de La Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle," Post-Print hal-03389354, HAL.
    4. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    5. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
    8. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k862c2 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n09hk8ojo is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n09hk8ojo is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p9k74a8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p9k74a8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p9k74a8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n09hk8ojo is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p9k74a8 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n09hk8ojo is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "Le commencement de la déflation. Perspectives 2013-2014," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03470593, HAL.
    10. P. Halmai & V. Vásáry, 2011. "Crisis and economic growth in the EU," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 61(4), pages 465-485, December.
    11. Kaehler, Juergen & Weber, Christoph S., 2023. "Inflation in the aftermath of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Lemoine, M. & de la Serve, M.E. & Chetouane, M., 2011. "Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)," Working papers 331, Banque de France.
    13. Dan Corry & Anna Valero & John Van Reenen, 2011. "UK Economic Performance Since 1997: Growth, Productivity and Jobs," CEP Reports 24, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
    15. Barry Eichengreen, 2011. "Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies: What We Know, What We Do not, and What We Can Learn from the 1930s," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 383-406, September.
    16. Mr. Marcello M. Estevão & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2010. "Canada's Potential Growth: Another Victim of the Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2010/013, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de La Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle," Post-Print hal-03389354, HAL.
    18. Schubert, Stefan F., 2011. "The effects of total factor productivity and export shocks on a small open economy with unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1514-1530, September.
    19. Andersen, Henrik & Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger, 2024. "Optimal capital adequacy ratios for banks," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).
    20. Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    21. Mr. Abdul d Abiad & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan, 2009. "What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2009/245, International Monetary Fund.
    22. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6706 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k862c2 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k862c2 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    26. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    27. Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2021. "Time-frequency dependencies of financial and economic risks in South American countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 170-181.
    28. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    29. Albonico, Alice & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 13-26.
    30. Guillermo Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli & Pablo Ottonello, 2014. "Jobless Recoveries during Financial Crises: Is Inflation the Way Out?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.),Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 11, pages 331-381, Central Bank of Chile.
    31. Tyler Atkinson & David Luttrell & Harvey Rosenblum, 2013. "How bad was it? The costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PIB; Déficit; Chômage; Dette;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01024844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.