IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-01024209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gravity, market potential and development

Author

Listed:
  • Keith Head

    (Sauder - Sauder School of Business [British Columbia] - UBC - University of British Columbia)

  • Thierry Mayer

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article provides evidence on the long-term impact of market potential on economic development. It derives from the New Economic Geography literature a structural estimation where the level of factors' income of a country is related to its proximity to large markets, referred to as 'market potential'. The empirical part evaluates this market potential for all countries in the world with available trade data over the 1965-2003 period and relates it to income per capita. Overall results show that market potential is a powerful driver of increases in income per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "Gravity, market potential and development," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01024209, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01024209
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01024209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01024209/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mion, Giordano & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2005. "Urbanization Externalities, Market Potential and Spatial Sorting of Skills and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 5172, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    4. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10192 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
    7. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent, 2008. "Spatial wage disparities: Sorting matters!," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 723-742, March.
    8. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    9. Redding, Stephen & Schott, Peter K., 2003. "Distance, skill deepening and development: will peripheral countries ever get rich?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 515-541, December.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10192 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    12. Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2006. "Market Access Impact on Individual Wage: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2006-23, CEPII research center.
    13. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Firms in the European Union," Post-Print hal-01020551, HAL.
    14. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    15. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    16. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    17. Fingleton, Bernard, 2008. "Competing models of global dynamics: Evidence from panel models with spatially correlated error components," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 542-558, May.
    18. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2006. "Regional wage and employment responses to market potential in the EU," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 573-594, September.
    19. Fally, Thibault & Paillacar, Rodrigo & Terra, Cristina, 2010. "Economic geography and wages in Brazil: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 155-168, January.
    20. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Investment in the European Union," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 959-972, November.
    21. Paul Krugman, 1992. "A Dynamic Spatial Model," NBER Working Papers 4219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    23. Gilles Duranton & Vassilis Monastiriotis, 2002. "Mind the Gaps: The Evolution of Regional Earnings Inequalities in the U.K., 1982–1997," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 219-256, May.
    24. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Firms in the European Union," Post-Print hal-01020551, HAL.
    25. Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2010. "Market Access and Individual Wages: Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 145-159, February.
    26. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," SciencePo Working papers hal-03579844, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "Gravity, market potential and economic development," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 281-294, March.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8mb6c01j is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8mb6c01j is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8mb6c01j is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8mb6c01j is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "Gravity, market potential and development," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
    7. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "Gravity, market potential and economic development," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 281-294, March.
    8. Thierry Mayer, 2008. "Market Potential and Development," Working Papers hal-01066164, HAL.
    9. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2006. "Regional wage and employment responses to market potential in the EU," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 573-594, September.
    10. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    11. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Gobillon, Laurent, 2015. "The Empirics of Agglomeration Economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 247-348, Elsevier.
    13. Laura Hering & Rodrigo Paillacar, 2016. "Does Access to Foreign Markets Shape Internal Migration? Evidence from Brazil," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(1), pages 78-103.
    14. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    15. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Giordano Mion & Paolo Naticchioni, 2009. "The spatial sorting and matching of skills and firms," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 28-55, February.
    17. Christoph Hammer & Aurélien Fichet de Clairfontaine, 2016. "Trade Costs and Income in European Regions," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp220, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    18. Andrzej Cieślik & Bartłomiej Rokicki, 2016. "Individual wages and regional market potential," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(4), pages 661-682, October.
    19. Burhan Can Karahasan & Fırat Bilgel, 2020. "Market access and regional dispersion of human capital accumulation in Turkey," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 1073-1101, August.
    20. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00802143 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10146 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. PHOLO Alain & TENIKUE Michel & NAFARI Baraka, 2017. "Market Potential, Agglomeration Effects and the Location of French Firms in Africa," LISER Working Paper Series 2017-19, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    23. Gabrielle Gambuli, 2023. "Navigating the Geography of Regional Disparities: Market Access and the Core-Periphery Divide," THEMA Working Papers 2023-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    24. Ouyang, Puman & Zhang, Teng & Dong, Yan, 2015. "Market potential, firm exports and profit: Which market do the Chinese firms profit from?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 94-108.
    25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10146 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Burhan Can Karahasan & Firat Bilgel, 2018. "Economic Geography, Growth Dynamics and Human Capital Accumulation in Turkey: Evidence from Regional and Micro Data," Working Papers 1233, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Oct 2018.
    27. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/10146 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Maarten Bosker & Harry Garretsen, 2012. "Economic Geography and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 26(3), pages 443-485.
    29. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10146 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Han, Feng & Ke, Shanzi, 2016. "The effects of factor proximity and market potential on urban manufacturing output," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 31-45.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01024209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.