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Measuring variations in lifetime welfare ex ante and ex post:some exploratory calculations

Author

Listed:
  • Grégory Ponthière

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Whereas longevity-adjusted consumption measures have become increasingly used as indicators of lifetime standards of living, it remained unnoticed that those measures, by relying on period - rather than cohort - life tables, constitute indicators of expected - rather than actual - lifetime standards of living. In order to estimate the actual gap between ex ante and ex post measures of lifetime welfare, this paper computes, for 19th-century European economies, longevity-adjusted consumption measures based on period and cohort life tables. It is shown that the gap between ex ante and ex post measures is statistically significant, and that attempts to reduce it are likely to be unsuccessful, because standards of living tend to exhibit, over temporal horizons as long as a human life, structural breaks, which make the ex ante measurement of lifetime welfare highly speculative.

Suggested Citation

  • Grégory Ponthière, 2011. "Measuring variations in lifetime welfare ex ante and ex post:some exploratory calculations," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754529, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00754529
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2009.00341.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2012. "The Public Economics of Increasing Longevity," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 200(1), pages 41-74, March.
    2. Da Costa, Shaun, 2023. "Estimating the welfare gains from anti-retroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Da Costa, Shaun & O’Donnell, Owen & Van Gestel, Raf, 2024. "Distributionally sensitive measurement and valuation of population health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Shaun Da Costa & Owen O'Donnell & Raf Van Gestel, 2023. "Distributionally Sensitive Measurement and Valuation of Population Health," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-017/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Shaun Da Costa, 2023. "Estimating the value of life expectancy gains in Tanzania using the life satisfaction and model based approaches," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1040-1063, May.

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