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How resilient was trade to COVID-19?

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Bas

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ana Fernandes

    (World Bank - Banque Mondiale)

  • Caroline Paunov

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

Abstract

We provide stylized facts on the short-run resilience of exports to the COVID-19 pandemic across product characteristics. Relying on global monthly product-level exports to the United States, Japan, and the 27 European Union countries from January 2018 to December 2021, we show that products with a higher reliance on China or few countries as input suppliers saw stronger declines in exports as a result of the COVID-19 shock while those with more automated production processes saw exports increase. Our analysis also shows that product characteristics played different roles mediating export responses at different stages of the 2020–2021 COVID-19 crisis. We document rapid reductions in vulnerabilities for exports of unskilled-intensive production. Reliance on diversified inputs from abroad progressively contributed to resilience following an initial negative role when trade was severely disrupted globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Bas & Ana Fernandes & Caroline Paunov, 2024. "How resilient was trade to COVID-19?," Post-Print halshs-04778247, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04778247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111080
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