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Forecasting carbon price using a multi‐objective least squares support vector machine with mixture kernels

Author

Listed:
  • Bangzhu Zhu
  • Shunxin Ye
  • Ping Wang
  • Julien Chevallier

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

  • Yi‐ming Wei

Abstract

For improving forecasting accuracy and trading performance, this paper proposes a new multi‐objective least squares support vector machine with mixture kernels to forecast asset prices. First, a mixture kernel function is introduced into taking full use of global and local kernel functions, which is adaptively determined following a data‐driven procedure. Second, a multi‐objective fitness function is proposed by incorporating level forecasting and trading performance, and particle swarm optimization is used to synchronously search the optimal model selections of least squares support vector machine with mixture kernels. Taking CO 2 assets as examples, the results obtained show that compared with the popular models, the proposed model can achieve higher forecasting accuracy and higher trading performance. The advantages of the mixture kernel function and the multi‐objective fitness function can improve the forecasting ability of the asset price. The findings also show that the models with a high‐level forecasting accuracy cannot always have a high trading performance of asset price forecasting. In contrast, high directional forecasting usually means a high trading performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Bangzhu Zhu & Shunxin Ye & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yi‐ming Wei, 2022. "Forecasting carbon price using a multi‐objective least squares support vector machine with mixture kernels," Post-Print halshs-04250287, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04250287
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2784
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yingying & Dai, Yifan & Guo, Lingling & Chen, Jingjing, 2024. "Leveraging machine learning to forecast carbon returns: Factors from energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    2. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Ma, Xiaochen & Pan, Yanchun & Zhang, Manzi & Ma, Jianhua & Yang, Wen, 2024. "Impact of carbon emission trading and renewable energy development policy on the sustainability of electricity market: A stackelberg game analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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