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Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Ben Jelloul

    (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)

  • Antoine Bozio

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)

  • Elsa Perdrix

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Legos - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Audrey Rain

    (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)

  • Léa Toulemon

    (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)

Abstract

This paper aims at projecting the disabled population aged 60 or more, and at identifying the factors that impact those projections. To this aim, we develop a novel methodological approach which allows identifying the role of different parameters (e.g. a change in the probability to remain autonomous, a change in the distribution of survival gains across disability levels) in the forecast of morbidity. This paper focuses on the methodological aspect of this new method. It also provides, as an illustration, a projection of the French elderly disabled population in 2060, relying on the French CARE‑M data and on the European data SHARE. It shows, among other results, that matching the past evolution of the disability‑free life expectancy ratio to the total life expectancy requires optimistic assumptions regarding the evolution of the probability to remain autonomous.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Ben Jelloul & Antoine Bozio & Elsa Perdrix & Audrey Rain & Léa Toulemon, 2023. "Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations," Post-Print halshs-04155387, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04155387
    DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2090
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    Cited by:

    1. Agar Brugiavini & Petru Crudu, 2023. "The Role of Disability Insurance on the Labour Market Trajectories of Europeans," Working Papers 2023:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Microsimulation; Ageing; Elderly disability; Long‑term care;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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