IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-03773481.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic trends and balance of payments crises

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Ben Abdallah

    (TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Taoufik Rahji

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR6586] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the importance of domestic nominal and real shocks on the fluctuations of the exchange rate and the current account balance in four countries: South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Mexico. We also analyse the effect of the budgetary deficit and the monetary policy on their exchange rate and their current account balance. We use the recently developed multivariate cointegration analysis followed by the model of common trends, the vector error correlation modelling, the impulse response functions and the variance decompositions. The results presented in this paper suggest that Asian countries have exposed their economy to external shock that have rendered their economy vulnerable to them. Consequently, we suggest that we must search the causes of Asian crises in the external shocks that have hit the Asian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ben Abdallah & Taoufik Rahji, 2000. "Stochastic trends and balance of payments crises," Post-Print halshs-03773481, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03773481
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03773481
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03773481/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03773481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.