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Political shocks and economic growth. The case of Tunisia
[Impacts des chocs politiques et sanitaires sur la croissance économique. Le cas de la Tunisie]

Author

Listed:
  • Edwin Le Héron

    (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Amine Marouane

    (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux])

Abstract

Such extreme events as a revolution, a global pandemic, or terrorist attacks are political shocks that can significantly impact confidence and economic growth. Tunisia, for which tourism is crucial, has recently undergone a revolution in 2011, two terrorist attacks in 2015, and now the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic impact of these political events is much greater than that of the economic crisis of 2008. Using a post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent model, the aim of this paper is to reproduce the stylized facts since 2008. We first build a confidence index, then we try to provide forecasts of the economic impact of exogenous shocks

Suggested Citation

  • Edwin Le Héron & Amine Marouane, 2021. "Political shocks and economic growth. The case of Tunisia [Impacts des chocs politiques et sanitaires sur la croissance économique. Le cas de la Tunisie]," Post-Print halshs-03412949, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03412949
    DOI: 10.48611/isbn.978-2-406-11904-3.p.0159
    as

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