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Note de conjoncture Russie 2016 02

Author

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  • Julien Vercueil

    (Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales, CREE EA 4513 - Centre de recherches Europes-Eurasie - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales)

Abstract

Au premier trimestre 2016, l'inflation a montré des signes d'apaisement, son rythme annuel étant pratiquement divisé par deux. En revanche, une nouvelle chute des prix du pétrole durant les deux premiers mois du trimestre a assombri les perspectives et a placé les finances publiques sous une pression accrue. La demande intérieure reste déprimée, entreprises et ménages continuant d'afficher un fort pessimisme. Enfin, la compétitivité de l'industrie nationale est battue en brèche par l'absence d'investissement et les débuts d'une appréciation réelle du taux de change. Dans ces conditions, le risque est grand que la politique de substitution aux importations se traduise par une coûteuse fuite en avant.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Vercueil, 2016. "Note de conjoncture Russie 2016 02," Post-Print halshs-01422286, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01422286
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01422286
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    Keywords

    Russie; conjoncture économique;

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