IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01096335.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Auray

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Frédéric Jouneau-Sion

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) than average precipitations (respectively temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures have non-linear effects on productivity: large temperature variations lower productivity. Quantitatively, a permanent two degree rise in temperatures lowers the level of productivity by more than 22%, and production by more than 26%. This historical impact evaluation may serve as an informative benchmark for currently under-developed economies in front of the upcoming climatic change
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2016. "Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England," Post-Print halshs-01096335, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01096335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Hercowitz, Zvi & Sampson, Michael, 1991. "Output Growth, the Real Wage, and Employment Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1215-1237, December.
    3. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    4. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    6. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    7. Kenneth Arrow, 1962. "Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 609-626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Jouneau-Sion, Frédéric, 2014. "Wars and capital destruction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 224-240.
    9. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    11. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Damette & Claude Diebolt & Stephane Goutte & Umberto Triacca, 2020. "Cliometrics of Climate Change," Working Papers hal-03215675, HAL.
    2. Olivier DAMETTE & Claude DIEBOLT & Stephane GOUTTE & Umberto TRIACCA, 2020. "Cliometrics of Climate Change: A Natural Experiment on the Little Ice Age," Working Papers of BETA 2020-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017. "Weather Shocks, Climate Change and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 81230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chai Liang Huang & Lai Ferry Sugianto, 2024. "The scorching temperatures shock effect on firms’ performance: a global perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1651-1732, May.
    5. José L. Martínes-González, 2015. "Did Climate Change Influence English Agricultural Development? (1645-1740)," Working Papers 0075, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    2. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
    3. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    4. Zhang, Peng & Deschenes, Olivier & Meng, Kyle & Zhang, Junjie, 2018. "Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: Evidence from a half million chinese manufacturing plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2011. "The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    6. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:n:3:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Jouneau-Sion, Frédéric, 2014. "Modeling tails of aggregate economic processes in a stochastic growth model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-94.
    9. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2020. "Weather shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    11. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Xuan Liu & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1117-1146, September.
    12. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    14. Sevgi Coskun, 2016. "Labor Market Fluctuations in Developing Countries," EcoMod2016 9732, EcoMod.
    15. Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "Time to produce and emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 37-52.
    16. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    17. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
    18. Converse, Nathan, 2018. "Uncertainty, capital flows, and maturity mismatch," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 260-275.
    19. Hwang, Seolwoong & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Real business cycles in emerging countries: Are Asian business cycles different from Latin American business cycles?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Günay, Hüseyin & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2015. "Credit market imperfections and business cycle asymmetries in Turkey," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 79-98.
    21. Jacek Rothert & Mohammad Rahmati, 2014. "Business Cycle Accounting in a Small Open Economy," Departmental Working Papers 46, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climatic conditions; TFP shocks; real wages; real rents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01096335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.