IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01083047.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Les dangers de la bulle immobilière chinoise

Author

Listed:
  • Mylène Gaulard

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)

Abstract

Since the mid-2000s, the Chinese real estate sector has undergone great expansion, but the bubble so formed is just the emerged part of deeper economic difficulties. Indeed, the control of property speculation seems very risky for the Chinese economy because this speculation reflects both the financial difficulties of the local authorities as well as more serious problems of profitability met by the production apparatus.

Suggested Citation

  • Mylène Gaulard, 2014. "Les dangers de la bulle immobilière chinoise," Post-Print halshs-01083047, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01083047
    DOI: 10.3917/rtm/219.0077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
    2. Wang, Xin & Wen, Yi, 2012. "Housing prices and the high Chinese saving rate puzzle," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 265-283.
    3. Violaine Cousin, 2011. "Banking in China," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-30696-7, February.
    4. Swinnen, Johan F.M. & Rozelle, Scott, 2006. "From Marx and Mao to the Market: The Economics and Politics of Agricultural Transition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199288915.
    5. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    6. Gao, Lu, 2010. "Achievements and Challenges: 30 Years of Housing Reforms in the People’s Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 198, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Li, Minqi, 2004. "Aggregate Demand, Productivity, and "Disguised Unemployment" in the Chinese Industrial Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 409-425, March.
    8. Mylène Gaulard, 2009. "Les limites de la croissance chinoise," Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(4), pages 875-893.
    9. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    10. Koh, Winston T.H. & Mariano, Roberto S. & Pavlov, Andrey & Phang, Sock Yong & Tan, Augustine H.H. & Wachter, Susan M., 2005. "Bank lending and real estate in Asia: market optimism and asset bubbles," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1103-1118, January.
    11. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Mr. Murtaza H Syed & Mr. Liu Xueyan, 2012. "Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/277, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Mr. Nathan Porter & Wenlang Zhang, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," IMF Working Papers 2010/274, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Benjamin Delozier & Cyril Rebillard, 2010. "Le rééquilibrage de la croissance chinoise : enjeux et perspectives," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 194(3), pages 119-127.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising too Fast in Hong Kong SAR?," IMF Working Papers 2010/273, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap," NBER Working Papers 18673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Nathan Porter & Wenlang Zhang, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," Working Papers 1008, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    17. Fang Cai, 2012. "Is There a “Middle‐income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 49-61, January.
    18. Yongheng Deng & Joseph Gyourko & Jing Wu, 2012. "Land and House Price Measurement in China," NBER Working Papers 18403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    20. Ichiro Muto & Miyuki Matsunaga & Satoko Ueyama & Tomoyuki Fukumoto, 2010. "On the Recent Rise in China's Real Estate Prices," Bank of Japan Review Series 10-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    21. Louis Kuijs & Tao Wang, 2006. "China's Pattern of Growth: Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, February.
    22. Gaiyan Zhang & Hung-Gay Fung, 2006. "On the Imbalance Between the Real Estate Market and the Stock Markets in China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 26-39, April.
    23. Guo, Feng & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2010. "Does "hot money" drive China's real estate and stock markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 452-466, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laëtitia Guilhot, 2015. "Le nouveau modèle de croissance de l’économie chinoise, un moyen pour relever le défi de la trappe à revenu intermédiaire ?," Post-Print halshs-01165405, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mylène Gaulard, 2014. "La burbuja inmobiliaria en China," Post-Print halshs-01086912, HAL.
    2. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    3. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    4. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    6. Zhi, Tianhao & Li, Zhongfei & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Wei, Lijian & Sornette, Didier, 2019. "Is there a housing bubble in China?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 120-132.
    7. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    8. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    9. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
    10. Mao, Guangyu & Shen, Yan, 2019. "Bubbles or fundamentals? Modeling provincial house prices in China allowing for cross-sectional dependence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-64.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    13. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Li, Victor Jing & Cheng, Andy Wui Wing & Cheong, Tsun Se, 2017. "Home purchase restriction and housing price: A distribution dynamics analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-10.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Bian, Timothy Yang & Gete, Pedro, 2015. "What drives housing dynamics in China? A sign restrictions VAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 96-112.
    17. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 236, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    18. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2015. "Housing market dynamics in China: Findings from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
    19. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Jie Chen & Xuehui Han, 2014. "The Evolution Of The Housing Market And Its Socioeconomic Impacts In The Post-Reform People'S Republic Of China: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 652-670, September.
    20. Tie-Ying Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Zhao Jiang, 2016. "China's housing bubble burst?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 361-389, April.
    21. Weizeng Sun & Siqi Zheng & David M. Geltner & Rui Wang, 2017. "The Housing Market Effects of Local Home Purchase Restrictions: Evidence from Beijing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 288-312, October.
    22. Tommaso Gabrieli & Keith Pilbeam & Tianyu Wang, 2018. "Estimation of bubble dynamics in the Chinese real estate market: a State space model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 483-499, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01083047. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.