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Evolutionary beliefs and financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Elyès Jouini

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yannick Viossat

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Why do investors keep different opinions even though they learn from their own failures and successes? Why do investors keep different opinions even though they observe each other and learn from their relative failures and successes? We analyze beliefs dynamics when beliefs result from a very general learning process that favors beliefs leading to higher absolute or relative utility levels. We show that such a process converges to the Nash equilibrium in a game of strategic belief choices. The asymptotic beliefs are subjective and heterogeneous across the agents. Optimism (resp. overconfidence) as well as pessimism (resp. doubt) both emerge from the learning process. Furthermore, we obtain a positive correlation between pessimism (resp. doubt) and risk-tolerance. Under reasonable assumptions, beliefs exhibit a pessimistic bias and, as a consequence, the risk premium is higher than in a standard setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp & Yannick Viossat, 2013. "Evolutionary beliefs and financial markets," Post-Print halshs-00927265, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00927265
    DOI: 10.1093/rof/rfs004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00927265
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    Cited by:

    1. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.
    2. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2020. "Market selection with an endogenous state," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 51-59.
    3. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2016. "Live fast, die young," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 265-278, June.
    4. Daniel Arce & Douglas Cook & Robert Kieschnick, 2015. "On the evolution of corporate capital structures," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 561-583, July.
    5. Yannick Viossat, 2015. "Evolutionary dynamics and dominated strategies," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(1), pages 91-113, April.
    6. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2015. "Gurus and belief manipulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 11-18.
    7. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.

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