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Défaillances de coordination et volatilité des marchés

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Guesnerie

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Collège de France - Chaire Théorie économique et organisation sociale - CdF (institution) - Collège de France)

Abstract

Ce texte est celui venant en support de la conférence Jean-Jacques Laffont prononcée en clôture du Congrès 2010 de l'Association Française de Science Économique. La première partie revient sur la vision économique standard de la coordination des anticipations, vision que les événements récents conduisent à remettre en cause. La seconde partie passe en revue les directions existantes de réflexion critique sur l'hypothèse d'anticipations rationnelles. La troisième partie montre comment l'évaluation critique de l'hypothèse, dans une logique parfois qualifiée de " divinatoire ", change radicalement notre regard sur trois problèmes : le rôle économique de la spéculation, l'efficacité informationnelle des marchés, et last but not least, la capacité des agents à horizon long à anticiper l'avenir.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Guesnerie, 2011. "Défaillances de coordination et volatilité des marchés," Post-Print halshs-00754525, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00754525
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.623.0395
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    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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