IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00722035.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Arbitrage and price revelation with private beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel de Boisdeffre

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We extend the Cornet-de Boisdeffre (2002-2009) asymmetric information finite dimensional model to a more general setting, where agents may forecast prices with some private uncertainty. This new model drops both Radner's (1972-1979) classical, but restrictive, assumptions of rational expectations and perfect foresight. It deals with sequential financial equilibrium, when agents, unaware of how equilibrium prices or quantities are determined, are prone to uncertainty between - possibly uncountable - forecasts. Under perfect foresight, the extended model coincides with Cornet-de Boisdeffre's (2002-2009). Yet, when anticipations are private, we argue any element of a typically uncountable 'minimum uncertainty set' may prevail as an equilibrium price tomorrow. This outcome is inconsistent with perfect foresight and appeals for a broader definition of sequential equilibrium, which we propose hereafter. By standard techniques, we embed and extend Cornet-de Boisdeffre's (2002-2009) results, to the infinite dimensional model. The aim is to lay foundations for another paper, showing that the concept of sequential equilibrium we propose may solve the classical existence problems of the perfect foresight model, following Hart (1974).

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2012. "Arbitrage and price revelation with private beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00722035, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00722035
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00722035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00722035/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernard Cornet & Lionel Boisdeffre, 2009. "Elimination of arbitrage states in asymmetric information models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 38(2), pages 287-293, February.
    2. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    3. Hart, Oliver D., 1974. "On the existence of equilibrium in a securities model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 293-311, November.
    4. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993. "Temporary general equilibrium theory," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 879-922, Elsevier.
    5. Cornet, Bernard & De Boisdeffre, Lionel, 2002. "Arbitrage and price revelation with asymmetric information and incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 393-410, December.
    6. Green, Jerry R, 1973. "Temporary General Equilibrium in a Sequential Trading Model with Spot and Futures Transactions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1103-1123, November.
    7. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2012. "Arbitrage and price revelation with private beliefs," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00722035, HAL.
    2. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2012. "Arbitrage and price revelation with private beliefs," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12053, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2013. "Price revelation and existence of equilibrium in a private belief economy," Post-Print halshs-01053471, HAL.
    4. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2012. "On the existence of financial equilibrium when beliefs are private," Post-Print halshs-00746975, HAL.
    5. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2015. "Price revelation and existence of financial equilibrium with incomplete markets and private beliefs," Working papers of CATT hal-02943034, HAL.
    6. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2013. "Price revelation and existence of equilibrium in a private belief economy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01053471, HAL.
    7. Lionel DE BOISDEFFRE, 2015. "Price Revelation and Existence of Financial Equilibrium with Incomplete Markets and Private Beliefs," Working Papers 2014-2015_7, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Mar 2015.
    8. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2015. "Price revelation and existence of financial equilibrium with incomplete markets and private beliefs," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01164142, HAL.
    9. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2014. "Price revelation and existence of equilibrium in a private belief economy," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14056, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2012. "On the existence of financial equilibrium when beliefs are private," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12055, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2015. "Price revelation and existence of financial equilibrium with incomplete markets and private beliefs," Post-Print halshs-01164142, HAL.
    12. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2012. "On the existence of financial equilibrium when beliefs are private," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00746975, HAL.
    13. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2011. "Price uncertainty and the existence of financial equilibrium," Post-Print halshs-00587701, HAL.
    14. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2015. "Price revelation and existence of financial equilibrium with incomplete markets and private beliefs," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    15. Lionel De Boisdeffre, 2015. "Price revelation and existence of financial equilibrium with incomplete markets and private beliefs," Working Papers hal-02943034, HAL.
    16. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2018. "Sequential equilibrium without rational expectations of prices: A theorem of full existence," Post-Print halshs-01593567, HAL.
    17. Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2021. "Dropping the Cass Trick and Extending Cass' Theorem to Asymmetric Information and Restricted Participation," Post-Print halshs-03196923, HAL.
    18. Lionel DE BOISDEFFRE, 2015. "Learning from arbitrage," Working Papers 2015-2016_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Sep 2015.
    19. de Boisdeffre, Lionel, 2022. "Dropping rational expectations," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 37-46.
    20. Lionel de Boisde¤re, 2021. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets with differential information: A basic model of generic existence," Post-Print halshs-03196857, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00722035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.