IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00178583.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

EMU enlargement towards CEEC's : risks of sector-based and geographic asymmetric shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Trotignon

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The future membership of CEECs in the eurozone involves the risk of external asymmetric shocks, due to too strong a dependence on one sector or one customer country. By defining two indicators - sector-based and geographic - of exposure to shocks, taking into account the symmetry of the export structures of a candidate state with the EMU and the opening rate of the candidate state, we are able to draw up a classification of countries according to the fulfillment of Kenen's criterion, revised and transposed to the geographic variety of exports. The results, compared with those of the two countries of the EMU which are most sensitive to sector-based and geographic shocks (Finland and Ireland), testify to a generally pronounced exposure to shocks. An inventory of the pairs country / branch and country / destination at the origin of shocks with strong macroeconomic impact shows that Bulgaria and Slovakia, and even more Estonia and Latvia, are exposed to major risks. Thus, these two small economies would be well advised to create a cyclical stabilization fund before envisaging joining the EMU. Against the thesis of the endogeneity of the OCAs (optimum currency areas), this recommendation remains valid, insofar as the increase in the share of intra-industry trade between the EMU and a candidate state does not necessarily entail a convergence of multilateral sector-based export structures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Trotignon, 2003. "EMU enlargement towards CEEC's : risks of sector-based and geographic asymmetric shocks," Post-Print halshs-00178583, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00178583
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00178583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00178583/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00178583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.