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Le Brésil de Lula : l'utopie réformiste est elle soluble dans la globalisation financière ?

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  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Le texte propose un bilan des deux premières années de politique économique de l'équipe de Lula. La première partie rappelle l'héritage du précédent gouvernement de Fernando Henrique Cardoso. En dépit d'importants succès dans la lutte contre l'inflation et la réforme du secteur public, de profonds déséquilibres internes et externe perdurent, avec des taux d'intérêt élevés, une forte volatilité des taux de croissance, et une inégalité record dans la répartition de la richesse. Les tensions s'accroissent dangereusement pendant la campagne électorale, à mesure que le candidat socialiste Lula da Silva monte dans les sondages : les « spreads » sur les emprunts internationaux atteignent des niveaux historiques tandis que le taux de change s'effondre.Comme le montre la suite de l'exposé, le premier objectif du gouvernement Lula a été de réassurer les marchés financiers et d'administrer un « choc de crédibilité » : son équipe va réaliser des réformes dans le secteur public - au niveau du système de pension et de la fiscalité - , poursuivant par ailleurs une politique de taux d'intérêt orientée vers la lutte contre l'inflation. Au delà de ces premières mesures d'urgence, Lula continue manifestement la politique menée par Cardoso, pour le meilleur (système de sécurité sociale, santé, éducation, réforme du secteur publique) et le pire (une politique séduisant plus les spéculateurs financiers que les investisseurs à long terme). Pour réduire le chômage et la pauvreté, le Brésil nécessite des taux de croissance plus élevés et plus stables que les taux courants de l'ordre de 3 à 4%. Après la stabilisation, le principal pari de l'administration Lula consistera à mobiliser les investissements domestiques et étrangers dans le domaine des infrastructures et des industries les plus dynamiques tout en renforçant les politiques sociales.

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  • Alain Sand-Zantman, 2005. "Le Brésil de Lula : l'utopie réformiste est elle soluble dans la globalisation financière ?," Post-Print halshs-00156718, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00156718
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00156718
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    References listed on IDEAS

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