Analyse du degré d'intégration économique européen à partir des effets de transmission des échanges commerciaux

This thesis analyzes the effects of trade integration on the level of European economic integration. Itproposes to evaluate externalities of economic activity in a country on the other European countries due to trade. The analytical framework distinguishes, on the one hand, externalities that influence the business cycles and, on the other hand, externalities that affect the long-run level of production. The thesis is thus divided in two parts: first, the economic level of integration is analyzed in the short run through the business cycle synchronization of the European economies. Second, integration is considered through the long-run deformation degree of the level of production of a country due to the potential growth in the rest of Europe. Thanks to an original VAR modeling business cycles correlations, Part I leads to three main results: (i) dynamic multiplier effects of a shock in Europe are correlated with trade shares, (ii) the volume of imports explains the level of transmission of a country, which implies that Germany and France represent the "hinged plates" of the European cycle, (iii) an higher trade integration in the future will increase more than proportionally the business cycle synchronization. In Part II, the spectral analysis and estimation of linear cointegration relations are used to evaluate long-run relationships between the GDP European levels. It appears that trade integration, and the development of the intra-industry trade, increased in the Eighties the level of economic integration of the countries whose diversification of trade was initially high (at least 72% of intra-industry trade) but reduced the level of integration of the other countries. Then, the use of disaggregated data at the sectoral level shows that (i) externalities are more important between countries (within the same sector) as within a country (with the other sectors of the same country) and (ii) that the foreign effects of externalities are as important between the sectors as within the same sector. Thus, intra-European trade involves a high dependence degree between levels of production, even if their sectoral structures of production are different. By showing that sectoral specialization and economic integration can increase together, this thesis provides a new understanding of the challenge posed by the entry of the Central Europe in the European Union. Being little diversified, these economies could, by developing inter-industry trade, benefit more from the potential growth in Europe.