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Retour sur la croissance rapide des pays d'Asie du Sud-Est dans les années 80-90 : une analyse statistique des similitudes et des différences entre l'Indonésie, la Malaisie, les Philippines et la Thaïlande

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  • David Hoyrup

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cette communication cherche à mesurer statistiquement les similitudes et les différences dans les évolutions économiques enregistrées au cours des années de croissance rapide (1986-1996) dans les pays d'Asie du Sud-Est. L'objectif est de vérifier dans quelle mesure l'Indonésie, la Malaisie, les Philippines et la Thaïlande (souvent regroupés sous l'appellation ASEAN-4 ou NPI 2) constituent un groupe de pays homogène. Si tel était le cas, on pourrait par la suite procéder à une analyse des fondements institutionnels communs qui sont à l'origine de ces performances remarquables. On utilise pour cela les données de la Banque Mondiale (cadrage macroéconomique) et du CEPII (modalités d'insertion dans le commerce mondial), afin de procéder à une analyse en composante principale, qui permet de représenter graphiquement ces différences et similitudes entre pays. Les résultats confirment que la Malaisie, la Thaïlande et dans une moindre mesure, l'Indonésie, ont effectivement connu des trajectoires nationales de développement relativement similaires, tandis que les Philippines se distinguent largement des trois autres pays. Les recherches sur les fondements institutionnels du "miracle asiatique" devraient donc porter sur les trois premiers pays cités, et mettre de côté le cas des Philippines.

Suggested Citation

  • David Hoyrup, 2005. "Retour sur la croissance rapide des pays d'Asie du Sud-Est dans les années 80-90 : une analyse statistique des similitudes et des différences entre l'Indonésie, la Malaisie, les Philippines et la Thaï," Post-Print halshs-00097796, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00097796
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00097796
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    References listed on IDEAS

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