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Modelling long-run scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Charles Hourcade

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper intends to draw overall lessons from a long-term study on CO2 emission in France, a country with a rather low energy/GDP ration and in which transition to non-fossil based production of electricity has been achieved. More generally, it points out the importance of possible bifurcation effects, and draws methodological and policy implications from these statements. It discusses modelling approaches to the linkages between energy and the rest of economy, and addresses the issue of difficulties in cost assessment analysis in the presence of several baseline scenarios. Finally, it proposes a more encompassing definition of no regrets policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Charles Hourcade, 1993. "Modelling long-run scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00008564, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00008564
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00008564
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    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00008564/document
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    Cited by:

    1. Costa, Ricardo Cunha da, 2001. "Do model structures affect findings? Two energy consumption and CO2 emission scenarios for Brazil in 2010," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 777-785, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run scenarios; Modelling; CO2 emissions;
    All these keywords.

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