IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04992105.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling GDP with a continuous-time finance approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenya Liu

    (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School)

  • Rongyu You

    (Renmin University of China = Université Renmin de Chine)

  • Yaosong Zhan

    (NSYSU - National Sun Yat-sen University)

Abstract

We apply a continuous-time finance approach to model the GDP trajectories of the world's two largest economies, the United States and China. Using stochastic process models and first-passage time theory, we forecast when China's GDP will surpass that of the United States. To account for changing economic conditions, we incorporate a change-point detection method, which segments the data into periods of stable economic growth. Our results demonstrate that by considering change points, our predictions become more robust and provide valuable insights into the future economic outlook for both countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenya Liu & Rongyu You & Yaosong Zhan, 2025. "Modeling GDP with a continuous-time finance approach," Post-Print hal-04992105, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04992105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.106971
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04992105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.