Analysis of the Effect of Democracy on Environmental Quality: a threshold regression approach[Analyse de l'effet de la démocratie sur la qualité de l'environnement : une approche de régression de seuil]

This study identifies the relationship between the characteristics of democratic systems and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using a panel dataset covering over 110 countries from 1961 to 2022 and employing a threshold model, this study examines how democracy influences environmental quality. The findings from the analyses reveal that in a thriving democracy, freedom of expression is an effective means of improving environmental quality by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Conversely, the concentration of political power hinders the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It is observed that when political power is centralized in the hands of the executive branch, excluding opportunities for oversight of government actions, the economy becomes increasingly emission-intensive, thereby degrading environmental quality. It is also noted that at a low level of GDP per capita, greenhouse gas emissions increase, but when GDP per capita rises to a certain threshold, greenhouse gas emissions decrease. This demonstrates the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for all countries in the study. These results highlight the need to develop appropriate climate policies while strengthening participatory and institutional mechanisms within democracies to optimize their impact on environmental sustainability.