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Effet d’un choc d’incertitude politique sur le PIB français

Author

Listed:
  • Raul Sampognaro

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

La dissolution de l'Assemblée nationale du 9 juin 2024 a ouvert une période d'incertitude politique dans l'Hexagone, qui n'est pas retombée avec le résultat des élections législatives des 30 juin et du 7 juillet. Cette étude propose une méthodologie pour en évaluer les conséquences. Selon ce modèle, la croissance du PIB français serait amputée de 0,1 point en 2024 et de 0,3 point en 2025. La croissance serait pénalisée en particulier par l'affaiblissement de l'investissement des sociétés non financières. En outre, un choc ponctuel sur l'incertitude politique génère une hausse du taux d'intérêt national qui explique la persistance des pertes de PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul Sampognaro, 2024. "Effet d’un choc d’incertitude politique sur le PIB français," Post-Print hal-04940095, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04940095
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04940095v1
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    Keywords

    France; Conjoncture;

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