IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04923055.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Surviving the Storm: Hazard Models and Signaling Shocks in Bitcoin Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Balutel

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, York University [Toronto])

  • Marcel Voia

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, UniBuc - University of Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper explores factors influencing Bitcoin price fluctuations and identifies key indicators for predicting market movements. Positive price trends are associated with increased network activity, larger block sizes, and higher returns on investment, providing potential opportunities for investors. Conversely, increased values in Address Action Count, Capital Market Value, Coinbase Issuance, and Return on Investment suggest a higher risk of negative price shocks and potential downward market trends. The study also highlights mitigating factors like Bitcoin capitalization, current supply, and current velocity, offering valuable insights for enhancing market stability. Furthermore, the findings suggest that as the absolute magnitude of price shocks increases, the occurrence of negative price shocks surpasses that of positive ones. Simultaneously, there is a significant decrease in the predictability of negative shocks relative to the predictability of positive price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Balutel & Marcel Voia, 2023. "Surviving the Storm: Hazard Models and Signaling Shocks in Bitcoin Prices," Post-Print hal-04923055, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04923055
    DOI: 10.3917/rfe.238.0021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04923055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.