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How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Author

Listed:
  • Ilke Aydogan

    (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux], LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Aurélien Baillon

    (EM - EMLyon Business School, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emmanuel Kemel

    (GREGHEC - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Chen Li

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices. In an experiment, we found that the subjects exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 19% of the signals that contradicted their priors. They were also conservative and acted as if they missed 28% of the signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilke Aydogan & Aurélien Baillon & Emmanuel Kemel & Chen Li, 2025. "How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices," Post-Print hal-04911749, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04911749
    DOI: 10.3982/qe2094
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04911749v1
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    Keywords

    Non-Bayesian updating; conservatism; confirmatory bias; perceived signals; belief elicitation;
    All these keywords.

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