Risk storylines to investigate people’s habitability in the Vosges Massif (France) within the context of multiple climatic risks

Climate change, compounding with non-climatic stressors, impacts socio-ecological systems and threatens the human habitability of places. Moreover, the complex interplay of drivers and impacts introduces high levels of uncertainty, complicating future predictions of habitability. While habitability is internationally recognised as an important condition in adaptation studies, its definition and conceptualisation are still under discussion. Moreover, traditional studies dealing with habitability mostly apply a top-down approach and focus on its material aspects, such as housing, food, and water, while overlooking local knowledge, and needs of the affected communities, who better know what makes their place acceptable to live in. Risk Storylines (RS) are a promising tool that can apply a bottom-up approach and co-create a shared definition of habitability while managing uncertainty within the context of multiple climatic risks. The Habi(Li)ter project aims to adopt the RS as an exploratory tool to investigate present and future habitability in Lorraine (France) under climate change and multi-risk interactions and define suitable modelling strategies to assess it in a quali-quantitative way. In particular, the RS will be applied to: 1. Understand how climate hazards and local vulnerabilities interact, leading to cascading impacts across multiple sectors. The narrative nature of this tool will facilitate stakeholders in describing the temporal dynamics of interest, specifically regarding the development of hazards and their impacts over time (particularly for long-onset hazards and chronic stresses), as well as socio-economic development pathways that might affect future habitability. Moreover, the narrative description of the risk dynamics provided by the RS can guide the implementation of conceptual models tailored to capture the most influential conditions, such as temporal dynamics (System Dynamics) or risk-informed approaches (Impact Chains). 2. Identify local habitability factors. RS are useful for exploring the uncertainties that most influence local habitability and determining which adaptation strategies should be investigated. 3. Develop Scenarios for Investigation. RS is an "exploratory" tool, to manage uncertainty by identifying a subset of futures that are "plausible" for stakeholders. Silvia De Angeli is the principal investigator of the Habi(Li)ter project, funded by Lorraine Université d'Excellence and supported by Eurac Research. Starting in October 2024, the project will benefit from a research exchange with Stefano Terzi, co-author of this contribution. The INQUIMUS workshop will offer valuable insights into the potential of RS for bottom-up climate risk and habitability assessments, enhancing our understanding of how to address these complex challenges effectively.