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How does the economic policy uncertainty factor in the dynamics of oil price uncertainty?

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Listed:
  • Jacques Minlend

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper investigates the endogenous relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty within a framework of a supply-demand shock identification model. Our empirical strategy relies on a structural vector autoregressive approach. Our major findings reveal a significant increase in oil price uncertainty from a positive EPU shock. We also demonstrate that a negative oil supply shock contributes to raising oil price uncertainty, whereas a positive demand shock causes oil price uncertainty to decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Minlend, 2023. "How does the economic policy uncertainty factor in the dynamics of oil price uncertainty?," Post-Print hal-04700376, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04700376
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