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Food diets and land-use change at a global scale: the key role of modelling frameworks

Author

Listed:
  • Chantal Le Mouël

    (SMART - Structures et Marchés Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Patrice Dumas

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • Agneta Forslund

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

In this study, we advocate for more transparency when reporting simulation results obtained from several different models but with the same scenarios. We argue that focusing on average or median values contributes to hiding the fragility and uncertainty of simulation results. Meanwhile, pointing out the main mechanisms at stake in the various models and emphasizing the extent to which these mechanisms explain the divergence in results would likely help to a better understanding and interpretation of results and contribute to clarify the scientific debates. For that purpose, we focus on the land-use change impacts of food diet change. Our objective is to show how and to what extent the modelling framework may affect results. More specifically, we are interested in pointing out the main mechanisms in various models, which are responsible for most observed divergences in results. Thus, we simulate four contrasted diets with three models based on contrasting modelling frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Chantal Le Mouël & Patrice Dumas & Agneta Forslund, 2022. "Food diets and land-use change at a global scale: the key role of modelling frameworks," Post-Print hal-04626816, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04626816
    as

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