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Price trends of Agave Mezcalero in Mexico using multiple linear regression models

Author

Listed:
  • Angel Saul Cruz-Ramírez

    (IPN - Instituto Politecnico Nacional [Mexico])

  • Gabino Alberto Martínez-Gutiérrez

    (IPN - Instituto Politecnico Nacional [Mexico])

  • Alberto Gabino Martinez Hernandez

    (Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)

  • Isidro Morales

    (IPN - Instituto Politecnico Nacional [Mexico])

  • Cirenio Escamirosa-Tinoco

    (IPN - Instituto Politecnico Nacional [Mexico])

Abstract

This study developed a multiple linear regression model to estimate the Average rural prices (ARP) in Mexico with information taken from the period 1999-2018. The variables used to generate this model were the supply and demand as represented by planted area, yield, exports and the ARP of Agave Tequilero and Mezcalero. The analysis was carried out through the multiple linear regression model (MLRM) with the least squares method and using the statistical package R. The following variables were identified as having a significant influence on the determination of the ARP: the yield of Agave Mezcalero (YAM), the ARP of Agave Tequilero and the new planted area of Agave Tequilero (NPAATt-6) with an adjustment of 6 periods. Overall, three models were generated: model 2 was considered the most appropriate because it allows carrying out future forecasts with the new planted area with Agave Tequilero with 2 independent variables. YAM and NPAATt-6 were useful in predicting 65.5% of the annual variations in the ARP and helped recognize the negative trend of the Agave price from 2020 to 2024. Therefore, the use of the MLRM to estimate the Agave ARP can be a useful tool in predicting the performance of this crop.

Suggested Citation

  • Angel Saul Cruz-Ramírez & Gabino Alberto Martínez-Gutiérrez & Alberto Gabino Martinez Hernandez & Isidro Morales & Cirenio Escamirosa-Tinoco, 2023. "Price trends of Agave Mezcalero in Mexico using multiple linear regression models," Post-Print hal-04615357, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04615357
    DOI: 10.1590/0103-8478cr20210685
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04615357
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