Forest adaptation strategies to reconcile timber production and carbon sequestration objectives under multiple risks of extreme drought and windstorm events

This article aims to compare different forest adaptation strategies based on stand diversification from an economic perspective in order to reduce extreme drought- and windstorm-induced risks of dieback. We tested the efficiency of the strategies individually and then combined through a simulation study in which we evaluated the financial loss and the reduction of the carbon sequestration capacity. We used a stochastic forest growth model to simulate forest growth and carbon sequestration and developed a forest economic approach based on the land expectation value (LEV) to account for the stochastic simulations. Results showed that diversification increased timber production (from +4 to +81%) and LEV (from +27 to +398%), but reduced carbon storage (from -9 to -49%). Trade-offs between the financial balance and the carbon balance (adaptation vs. mitigation) are achievable. The valorisation of carbon services in addition to timber ones increases the forest value and changes the strategy that provides the highest economic return for a carbon price of 110 EUR/tC. Our study presents a new approach for the economic valuation of multiple risks in forest management, highlighting the importance of integrating several risks in a common analysis rather than investigating one risk at a time (traditional economic approach).