Potential unexpected effects of meat reduction in diet: Could educational attainment influence meat substitution strategies?

Regulation of meat consumption appears to be a relevant public policy to limit diet-related greenhouse gas emissions. However, the real impact of such a policy (e.g., tax) on human health and nutrition remains uncertain, especially for underprivileged individuals. Based on representative data from France, we estimate potential trend differences in the association between meat consumption and nutritional outcomes, such as body mass index (BMI) and unhealthy food intake, according to individual educational attainment. We reveal that among adults with low education levels, reduced meat consumption was significantly associated with a higher BMI, a higher risk of being overweight, and greater intake of ultra-processed foods, sweet drinks, and sugar. By contrast, reduced meat consumption was associated with healthier nutritional status for the most educated individuals. These results are robust to several measurements of socioeconomic status (SES) such as household income, occupation, and financial insecurity perception. In summary, high-SES individuals may be more prone to replace meat with healthy alternatives, whereas low-SES individuals may tend to replace meat with energy-dense foods and beverages, including ultra-processed foods. In terms of the contribution to science and society, this study is the first to show that SES changes the relationship between meat consumption and nutritional outcomes. Our findings call for future research on this topic to provide actionable recommendations to implement a fair and healthy food transition.