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Do analysts predict managed or unmanaged earnings?

Author

Listed:
  • Qazi Ghulam Mustafa Qureshi

    (ICN Business School, CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine)

  • Yves Mard

    (IAE - UCA - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Clermont-Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Francois Aubert

    (IAE - UCA - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Clermont-Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

This study examines the analysts' intentions on predicting the earnings forecasts, whether analysts predict managed or unmanaged earnings or in other words, predict accurate forecast or optimist/pessimist forecasts. This study introduces ex-post forecasts as the better proxy to explain analysts' intentions on earnings forecasts. The important contribution to this line of research is the use of ex-post forecasts in a comparative study of ex-ante and ex-post forecasts. This study covers 3,294 US firm-year observations from 2006 to 2018 and uses various empirical analyses including system GMM to eliminate endogenous effects. Our results suggest that analysts predict the managed earnings to be accurate and to minimize earnings surprises. Results also suggest brokers' actual estimates closely reflect managed earnings and forecast errors from managed earnings are distributed closer to zero than forecast errors from unmanaged earnings. This study provides value to investors in making investment decisions and for policymakers to provide stringent standards to minimize earnings management and any inside trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Qazi Ghulam Mustafa Qureshi & Yves Mard & Francois Aubert, 2023. "Do analysts predict managed or unmanaged earnings?," Post-Print hal-04315658, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04315658
    DOI: 10.1007/s40821-023-00250-7
    as

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