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Actuarial Implications and Modeling of Yellow Virus on Sugar Beet After the EU's Ban on Neonicotinoids and Climate Change
[Implications actuarielles et modélisation du virus de la jaunisse sur la betterave sucrière après l'interdiction des néonicotinoïdes par l'UE et le changement climatique]

Author

Listed:
  • Martial Phélippé-Guinvarc'h

    (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université, UM - Le Mans Université)

  • Jean Cordier

    (Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

Abstract

Following the EU's decision to ban neonicotinoids, this article investigates the impacts of yellow virus on sugar beet yields under the ban and under current and future climates. Using a model that factors in key variables such as sowing dates, phenological stages, first aphid flight and aphid abundance, simulations are performed using long-period climate datasets as inputs. Coupled with incidence and sugar yield loss assumptions, this model allows to reconstruct the impact of yellow virus on sugar beet yields using a so called 'as if' approach. By simulating the effects of viruses over a longer period of time, as if neonicotinoids weren't used in the past, this methodology allows an accurate assessment of risks associated with yellow viruses, as well as impact of future agroecological mesures. The study eventually provides an actuarial rating for an insurance policy that compensates the losses triggered by those viruses.

Suggested Citation

  • Martial Phélippé-Guinvarc'h & Jean Cordier, 2023. "Actuarial Implications and Modeling of Yellow Virus on Sugar Beet After the EU's Ban on Neonicotinoids and Climate Change [Implications actuarielles et modélisation du virus de la jaunisse sur la b," Post-Print hal-04214465, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04214465
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-lemans.hal.science/hal-04214465
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frédéric Francis & Christiane Then & Adrien Francis & Yao Aime Constant Gbangbo & Lisa Iannello & Ibtissem Ben Fekih, 2022. "Complementary Strategies for Biological Control of Aphids and Related Virus Transmission in Sugar Beet to Replace Neonicotinoids," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-12, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yellows Virus; Actuarial Rating; Beet; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

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